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    DAY AFTER ELECTIONS

    6 February 2005

    Attendance: embassy of Argentina, embassy of Turkey, Sweden general Consulate, Turkish general Consulate, German representative office Netherlands representative office, Switzerland representative office, ACPP, ACD, CESVI, CISS, CARE international, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Mercy Corps, Miftah, Oxfam solidarity Belgium, Oxfam UK, Rural Women Development Society, SDC, Voice of Palestine, Welfare association.

    This meeting has been organised by PARC – department of external relations and lobbying and advocacy department. We believed it was important for the Palestinian NGO sector to meet the international community – represented by both the diplomatic representations and the international NGO – in order to discuss the issue during this uncertain period of transition and doubt. The presence of an important number of national representative and international NGO was evidence of the interest in Palestinian civil society and the struggle for democracy and dialogue. They have always worked with the Palestinian NGO sector, and we hope that this collaboration will be maintained whoever heads the government.

    We hope that this meeting was not an exceptional event, but rather the first step of cooperation between us. We think that it is essential that these connections – between local and international NGOs, and between the NGO sector and the international diplomatic community – be reinforced.

    We believe that building such a dialogue is necessary if we are to achieve social and economic development in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, and if we are to send a political message that the occupation should end, and that the Palestinians should be allowed to enjoy freedom.

     

    Intervention of Dr Shiqaqi, Palestinian center for policy and survey research

    Why there was such a gap between the poll and the elections results?

    All the data were right (number of seats for Fatah, independent, PFLP…) but not the one for Hamas which didn’t get 35% but 44%. It is the first time that the poll failed to describe the result, because even in the local elections few weeks before there was no mistake, so we can’t blame the methodology. One of the explanations given by Dr Shiqaqi is the percentage of undecided people, who might have decided to vote for Hamas at the last moment, because there was a better campaign in term of communication and organisation.

    Even the poll just after elections didn’t give the good result (announcing the victory of Fatah). The explanation given for this is that there were a lot of rejections from Hamas supporters apparently because of the party order.

    What does mean Hamas’ victory?

    It is not a revolution in term of public opinion because it is just 44% of the voters, which means 44% of 77% of registered people. We can consider that the 66 other percent voted for the national agenda.

    The analysis of Hamas voters shows different motivations for this choice. First we can see that only 50% of them identify themselves as religious people which means that they didn’t vote for Hamas for the application of the charia’ (Islamic law). Most surprising, around 40% of them don’t share Hamas political agenda, because they agree with the road map, the recognition of Israel, and the collect of weapons. Only 14% declared to have chosen Hamas because they think it will be able to improve their economic conditions.

    So why did people vote for Hamas? The answer is the slogan: Reform and change. Indeed most of them declared that they chose this list to give a strong message against corruption and anarchy. According to Dr Shiqaqi it is much more a punishment for Fatah than a real choice for Hamas.

    People can ask why they didn’t choose the third way, the left party. It seems that people really wanted to defeat Fatah and the only one able to do it was Hamas, because they were stronger and better organised. Also psychologically they knew that Hamas victory will be a bigger punishment for Fatah.

    The biggest achievement of Hamas campaign is to have raised the corruption at the top of the electoral agenda. Fatah have been punished because they were not able to fight against corruption and disorder in the application of the law.

    What are the alternatives for the next government?

    Hamas will have to deal with the fact that in 2005 Mahmoud Abbas had been elected with 63% of votes, which means that the people voted at that period for the national agenda of negotiations with Israel…

    Now there are three alternatives to form a government:

    • A government of experts responsible for its action to the Parliament. This government would deal with the social and economical issue while the president would run political negotiation with international community. This alternative would be a short term one.

    • A national unity government with a third actor who will be Prime Minister (independent…). The problem is that there is not a lot of person fighting for this and that Fatah seems to be against this idea. The international community should pressure for this alternative because it would be sustainable and more efficient to run the Palestinian Authority.

    • A government headed by Hamas which will implement its social program. This would end by the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas. But it is absolutely not sustainable for a long term perspective because it would have to face all the international community and an important part of the Palestinian society.

    Dr Shiqaqi reaffirm that the recognition of Israel is the duty of the Palestinian Authority and not the one of Hamas as a political party.

    Intervention of Dr Ismaïl Daiq –  Agricultural Development Association (PARC)

    Dr Daiq starts by a rapid historic of the NGO sector in Palestine saying that all started with voluntary work and involvement of Palestinian people. At this period they were very close to people.

    When the Palestinian Authority had been introduced in 1995, there was a conflict with the already existing strong NGO’s because it was difficult for them to accept the control from the PA. In 2000, a law was voted to regulate NGO activities and then the relation started to get better.

    The problem is that most of the NGO’s started to focalise in the elite and to have big office in the cities. So a lot of services were not provided to the rural areas, and that left the area for Hamas intervention. At this moment around 2000, PARC planned a reform to reinforce its grassroots involvement and tried to enlighten donors and local organizations on the importance of building a bottom up social movement.

    People also started to identify NGO’s with the PA because 185 of them were directly or indirectly funded by the PA being governmental based organizations, and then Palestinians started connecting part of the NGO sector with the emerging corruption.

    Some NGO workers started to get involved in the political life, as part of the third way. But they were not unified so they couldn’t represent a real alternative to Hamas or Fatah.

    Dr Ismaïl highlighted the fact that some donors have been requesting joint projects between the Palestinian NGO’s and the PA, and this politic resulted in weakening of the NGO’s  and in building a gap between the people and the non-governmental sector, which paved the way for Hamas.

    Dr Ismaïl suggested that the priority should now be to return back to grassroots actions. He also stressed the fact that the NGO sector needed less pressure from outside – the donors – and more cooperation inside – between all the NGOs.

    Hanna Siniora – European Palestinian Chamber of Commerce

    Mr Siniora agreed with Dr Shiqaqi about his interpretation of Hamas’ victory.

    He suggested the possibility of a power share between the Prime Minister and the President concerning the issue of security considering that the security forces are currently Fatah supporters.

    He shared the idea that Hamas will be concentrated in the social issue, and implement the change and reform slogan to show that they are different from Fatah and more efficient. The President and the PLO would be in charge of negotiation and external relations because Hamas can’t face the entire world.

    According to him it is too early to know what will be Hamas priorities and relationship with Mahmoud Abbas and the international community. Nevertheless, he stressed the fact that Hamas position against the recognition of Israel is the same than PLO position twenty years ago, so we can hope that the contact with the realpolitik would change their position. The recent declaration about the possibility of a long-term cease-fire is going in this way.

    He called for the international community to play an active role in the evolution of the Palestinian socio-political situation. He condemned Israeli and United States’ first reaction to announce that they will stop the aid for Palestinian people. It was not carefully thought-out which could have provoked a radicalisation of Hamas.

    According to him the eventuality of a decrease for the international community support to the PA would increase NGO role but would have a negative effect by the pressure and the political implication it would involve.

    Debate with Mohammed Altar as mediator

    The Netherlands representation wanted to clarify the European Union position about the elections which can basically be summarized in one word: wait. Indeed the EU considers this moment as a transition period, during when the government will be chosen and by this way the future political orientation of the Palestinian Authority. They refused to create a financial crisis by stopping the aid. At the contrary they have the willingness to influence Hamas choices by being a financial partner. The representative said that it was impossible to ask too much to Hamas as an immediate demilitarisation and recognition of Israel because the party would refuse it, but that it was important to maintain relation with them to incorporate Hamas in the political process.

    But he added that there was a problem of legality for United States as well as for the EU because Hamas is considered as a terrorist organisation, and by this way it is not admitted to fund it.

    A representative of Welfare association highlighted the influence of Israel and USA in Hamas progress by saying that they didn’t supported the PA by the constant violation of the road map, so they would have favoured the contempt for an inefficient power.

    A representative of Rural Women Development Society, candidate for the elections in Jerusalem district, stressed the fact that the victory of Hamas is a defeat of development workers who couldn’t offer an alternative to the poverty of people. She said that now everybody should work together to propose a better future not just for the country, but also for the region.

    Oxfam Belgium insisted in the role played by the international NGOs who invested a massive amount of money in development projects but didn’t play any political role. She said that without political measures, this work was inefficient. She stressed the fact that the international community should not just condemn Hamas to be a terrorist organisation, but should condemn Israel for all the violation of human rights and international law. She highlighted the necessity for NGO and PA to work together in order to plan the development of the territories. She also required a better evaluation of development projects, especially in women sector, because a lot of women voted for Hamas despite the important work that has been done in their direction.

    Someone asked Dr Shiqaqi about the example of Qalqilyia, where Hamas was elected in the local election but defeated in the PLC elections. He answered that the local and national election logic was really different, especially considering that the rural and urban areas have distinct strategy of vote. He stressed the fact that usually rural areas, as well as refugees camp were more supporting to Hamas, whereas urban areas where supporting Fatah and third way.

    Asked about the possibility of an islamic revolution in Palestine and the implementation of the charia’, Dr Shiqaqi said that Hamas won’t be able to go against what the people wants, and that the poll shows that there is no support for a revolution. He said that the influence of the Muslim Brothers would not be in a way to radicalise Hamas position, but at the contrary asking for moderation.

    About the security forces, Hanna Siniora said that it would be desirable that all Hamas forces were integrated in the national security forces in a first time, and in a second time that the strength of the forces would be reduced progressively.

    To conclude Dr Ismaïl called the international community to play a role to influence Hamas in its policy because according to him, there are now two choices for the future government: an Islamic country that can be compared to Al Qaida and a modern and secular country as Turkey.

     

    Delphine Thizy
    Ramallah, 6 February 2006

    Palestinian Agricultural Relief Committees

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